Barack Obama is doing well in the presidential nomination votes (OK there's only been one so far, but New Hampshire polling looks good as I write this).
About 10 minutes ago I had a Dead Zone moment! It probably says more about me than the vibe in the US at the moment, but I have a bad feeling about his chances. Not his chances of winning, but his chances of staying alive.
I think he's the best candidate by far in many, many ways and I hope more than I ever have before that he makes it all the way to the presidency, but I think there is a long way to go and 5 factors make me think that he'll be assassinated before he gets there:
1. those rallies are so uncontrolled it's crazy. Sure there is security, but it's nigh on impossible to stop a truly determined assassin because ....
2. technology is easy to come by (some of it designed by the US military) which can enable relatively easy "kills"
3. there are waaaay too many hand guns in the US and very easily available (especially in some states which he will definitely have to go to)
4. there is going to be a lot of racist annimosity towards him if he wins the nomination because it basically becomes a two person race and it's pretty close these days so it could certainly go either way
5. it's sod's law that just when something very good can happen it gets snatched right underneath the planet's nose
As I mentioned before I sincerely, truly hope this does not happen, both for Obama and family and for the whole planet. I would not be surprised, however, if it did and this planet is plenty fucked-up for it to happen any day.
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