Sunday, April 29, 2007
Universal future machine: a catawampus detection gizmo
While I'm on the subject of super computers I'll get this thought experiment off my chest:
Imagine that there's no free will. Every action or inaction on the planet (or system) is entirely predictable because every action or inaction is generated by calculating machines. These calculating machines are the atomic and molecular interactions of our brains, plant cells etc combined with other affects like gravitation, quantum interactions and the information contained in these states, e.g. a newspaper headline, the comedy of a moving film etc etc etc.
In this scenario it's possible to generate a computer (or future machine) that, when programmed with all the available information (a seemingly impossibly large data set including the positions and states of every subatomic particle in the system combined with the ultra complex plexus of information and meaning, e.g. a definition of sarcasm, or hunger) would be able to predict the future of the system with absolute accuracy.
In my opinion this kind of computer is impossible at our current level of human understanding, but in an incomprehensibly-advanced technological society who knows?!
Combine this idea with my other theory about the intelligent life in the universe (not actually my theory, but let's say I agree with Frank Drake - link) which estimates that civilisations have already existed and evolved over millions if not billions of years past our current level of civilisation. It's likely, therefore, that there is a "society" in the universe that has the technology to create this computer. If so then they must have programmed it with the requisite data set, including all the subatomic detail of the system - in this case the whole universe - and therefore all of the data relating to our planet will be in the computer already.
I don't think of this computer as a physical beige box sitting on some desk somewhere (imagine pressing the reset button by mistake!!). No, I imagine this as a computing system interlinked directly with the entire universe. It would be impossible to load the dataset in a timely manner otherwise. How the output of this "device" is extracted wouldn't be some printout either. It would be inextricably linked with the very fabric of space-time. I imagine, therefore, that this output can be picked up anywhere in the universe providing one has the correct output tool. I think that this tool already exists, however it's not some kind of multi meter. It is certainly immaterial and probably a form of energy unknown to humanity. At times we interact accidently and strangely with this tool and this perhaps explains why I get so confused with things in life!!
The fact that I'm writing this blog on a Sunday morning whilst sitting in my dressing gown in front of the television showing Dora The Explorer (link) in a small town in the East Midlands of the land we call England has been predicted and analysed by some computer perhaps lightyears away from here, perhaps millions of years ago. Kinda spooky! It would also know what I am going to do next and could almost be considered universally omnipotent. There is a link to spirituality here, but I'll save that for another post, although considering that my future is already planned and predicted is there any point? If there's any other post to this blog then consider it a miracle of free will against fate!
The most interesting thing about this idea (and the mind-splitting implications) is that I believe it to be an inevitable consequence of current science.
Sideline question: at what point can a future machine give a useful output without knowing the whole data set? For example, can this computer produce an output of the future with just the knowledge of where every human being is located at a given time combined with an extensive profile of every human?
Imagine that there's no free will. Every action or inaction on the planet (or system) is entirely predictable because every action or inaction is generated by calculating machines. These calculating machines are the atomic and molecular interactions of our brains, plant cells etc combined with other affects like gravitation, quantum interactions and the information contained in these states, e.g. a newspaper headline, the comedy of a moving film etc etc etc.
In this scenario it's possible to generate a computer (or future machine) that, when programmed with all the available information (a seemingly impossibly large data set including the positions and states of every subatomic particle in the system combined with the ultra complex plexus of information and meaning, e.g. a definition of sarcasm, or hunger) would be able to predict the future of the system with absolute accuracy.
In my opinion this kind of computer is impossible at our current level of human understanding, but in an incomprehensibly-advanced technological society who knows?!
Combine this idea with my other theory about the intelligent life in the universe (not actually my theory, but let's say I agree with Frank Drake - link) which estimates that civilisations have already existed and evolved over millions if not billions of years past our current level of civilisation. It's likely, therefore, that there is a "society" in the universe that has the technology to create this computer. If so then they must have programmed it with the requisite data set, including all the subatomic detail of the system - in this case the whole universe - and therefore all of the data relating to our planet will be in the computer already.
I don't think of this computer as a physical beige box sitting on some desk somewhere (imagine pressing the reset button by mistake!!). No, I imagine this as a computing system interlinked directly with the entire universe. It would be impossible to load the dataset in a timely manner otherwise. How the output of this "device" is extracted wouldn't be some printout either. It would be inextricably linked with the very fabric of space-time. I imagine, therefore, that this output can be picked up anywhere in the universe providing one has the correct output tool. I think that this tool already exists, however it's not some kind of multi meter. It is certainly immaterial and probably a form of energy unknown to humanity. At times we interact accidently and strangely with this tool and this perhaps explains why I get so confused with things in life!!
The fact that I'm writing this blog on a Sunday morning whilst sitting in my dressing gown in front of the television showing Dora The Explorer (link) in a small town in the East Midlands of the land we call England has been predicted and analysed by some computer perhaps lightyears away from here, perhaps millions of years ago. Kinda spooky! It would also know what I am going to do next and could almost be considered universally omnipotent. There is a link to spirituality here, but I'll save that for another post, although considering that my future is already planned and predicted is there any point? If there's any other post to this blog then consider it a miracle of free will against fate!
The most interesting thing about this idea (and the mind-splitting implications) is that I believe it to be an inevitable consequence of current science.
Sideline question: at what point can a future machine give a useful output without knowing the whole data set? For example, can this computer produce an output of the future with just the knowledge of where every human being is located at a given time combined with an extensive profile of every human?
"Je calculerai pour que l'échec soit impossible"
Predicting the future is very difficult (except for Nostradamus), however I had a vision of a possible/inevitable future just now.
Sometimes it's possible to view a starting position and imagine an ending position. The transition of how that something becomes the end position from the start position is the bit that cannot be imagined easily. For example I can view a start position today of the internet as an enormous network of computers and at the same time humans are on the cusp of creating something like artificial life (see link) in a very rudimentary form.
The end position I can envision is one where a giant computer "brain" links with the internet to create an "intelligence" with access to the global wealth of knowledge that the internet will become (by internet I imagine the collection of wired computers with their firewalls removed; not just the World Wide Web). Effectively this will become a sort of super intelligence only limited by the hardware.
I have established the start and end points. How could this transition happen? I think it's inevitable that something very like this will happen. It seems likely that the internet will continue to grow and encompass more and more information (including CCTV, archive data, live demographic data etc etc) and in perhaps 20 years from now we will see a global information network unimaginable by today's standards.
The artificial brain idea is something more difficult to predict at the moment. It is hinted at in the IBM research that there are brain-like fluctuations generated without adding any structure to the network. I think that in 5 years time they will have hooked up a running brain model which will have brain-like charactistics and by adding neuronal structure there should be some "intelligence" created. At first this intelligence would be mostly involving learning strageties and data storage, but that's a fairly good approximation for life. A machine running a brain program is only limited by hardware and judging by the latest trends in information systems (see link) we are on the cusp of seeing a dramatic shift in the capability of hardware which will make silicon look like steam power. I predict that within the next 20 years graphene will be used in top-end computers.
So I predict that within the next 20 or 30 years someone like IBM (or probably Google) will have a graphene based enormous computer running a brain program that is permanently linked to an unfathomably complex global network of computers.
This is certainly the stuff of science fiction (see Alphaville's Alpha-60 and Terminator's Skynet etc), but within my lifetime I hope we will start to see something like this emerging. There are dangers with this and I certainly hope that they are being considered. Does IBM have a philosopher and psychologist in its R&D division?
(the blog title translates as "I will calculate so that failure is impossible" and is a quote from Alphaville's Alpha-60 (see previous post))
Sometimes it's possible to view a starting position and imagine an ending position. The transition of how that something becomes the end position from the start position is the bit that cannot be imagined easily. For example I can view a start position today of the internet as an enormous network of computers and at the same time humans are on the cusp of creating something like artificial life (see link) in a very rudimentary form.
The end position I can envision is one where a giant computer "brain" links with the internet to create an "intelligence" with access to the global wealth of knowledge that the internet will become (by internet I imagine the collection of wired computers with their firewalls removed; not just the World Wide Web). Effectively this will become a sort of super intelligence only limited by the hardware.
I have established the start and end points. How could this transition happen? I think it's inevitable that something very like this will happen. It seems likely that the internet will continue to grow and encompass more and more information (including CCTV, archive data, live demographic data etc etc) and in perhaps 20 years from now we will see a global information network unimaginable by today's standards.
The artificial brain idea is something more difficult to predict at the moment. It is hinted at in the IBM research that there are brain-like fluctuations generated without adding any structure to the network. I think that in 5 years time they will have hooked up a running brain model which will have brain-like charactistics and by adding neuronal structure there should be some "intelligence" created. At first this intelligence would be mostly involving learning strageties and data storage, but that's a fairly good approximation for life. A machine running a brain program is only limited by hardware and judging by the latest trends in information systems (see link) we are on the cusp of seeing a dramatic shift in the capability of hardware which will make silicon look like steam power. I predict that within the next 20 years graphene will be used in top-end computers.
So I predict that within the next 20 or 30 years someone like IBM (or probably Google) will have a graphene based enormous computer running a brain program that is permanently linked to an unfathomably complex global network of computers.
This is certainly the stuff of science fiction (see Alphaville's Alpha-60 and Terminator's Skynet etc), but within my lifetime I hope we will start to see something like this emerging. There are dangers with this and I certainly hope that they are being considered. Does IBM have a philosopher and psychologist in its R&D division?
(the blog title translates as "I will calculate so that failure is impossible" and is a quote from Alphaville's Alpha-60 (see previous post))
Friday, April 27, 2007
Whiskey catholicon
It's clear to me that the health industry (including so-called alternative therapies) doesn't really know how to cure us of our ills. I'll admit that for a large number of problems modern medicine (again, I include many alternative therapies) can heal the human body very well, however there are always people who heal themselves in many different ways. There is so much that is not understood about the human body and the way that the psyche can affect its workings that I am amazed when anyone claims to know something categorically.
I think I have a very positive attitude (PMA) towards most things and especially my own body and it's ability to heal itself. Obviously I am ill on occasion, but I pride myself in the fact that it's less than most people and I put some of it down to my attitude (I am also slightly blessed with general good health). I also have some alternative remedies of my own, for example I take whiskey for a sore throat. The onset of a viral infection can have many symptoms and, seemingly, modern medicine has no cure for most of them. Perhaps it's a psychosomatic reaction that makes me think I can be cured by whiskey, or perhaps it's a general feeling of wellness accompanied by a wee tot, but in either event I very often think the home-spun, old grandmother's cure-alls do the trick as much as the "official" antidote. The history of medicine is really just a catalogue of science catching up with anecdotal restoratives in my view, so why bow to the modern physic machine? I think I'll stick with my tot and a good laugh.
I think I have a very positive attitude (PMA) towards most things and especially my own body and it's ability to heal itself. Obviously I am ill on occasion, but I pride myself in the fact that it's less than most people and I put some of it down to my attitude (I am also slightly blessed with general good health). I also have some alternative remedies of my own, for example I take whiskey for a sore throat. The onset of a viral infection can have many symptoms and, seemingly, modern medicine has no cure for most of them. Perhaps it's a psychosomatic reaction that makes me think I can be cured by whiskey, or perhaps it's a general feeling of wellness accompanied by a wee tot, but in either event I very often think the home-spun, old grandmother's cure-alls do the trick as much as the "official" antidote. The history of medicine is really just a catalogue of science catching up with anecdotal restoratives in my view, so why bow to the modern physic machine? I think I'll stick with my tot and a good laugh.
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
The green, green everything of home
Push your imagination forward about 50 years. I think we'll be ready to create space-going vehicles with the capacity to travel at near light speeds and therefore would be able to reach other star systems in a reasonable time.
A very interesting news story today (link) made me think about the future and how human colonisation might work. Assuming our species lives another 50 years we might be able to set out on a journey to distant worlds. Let's say we can make it to Gliese 581 in about 30 years and colonise it. That would make the first humans born on another planet in about 80 years. They would be teenagers in about 100 years from today.
If they do not wear "corrective" spectacles then their eyes will develop very differently from their parents'. The sun around which Gliese 581 orbits is a red dwarf and therefore emits very red light, rather than a sort of yellow that our sun emits. This would mean that the cones in their eyes will be different so that they can see the detail on their native planet.
Imagine one of these people returning to Earth. How will their vision cope? Presumably they will see things very differently (probably everything will appear green since their red/green cones will have developed differently).
An interesting side affect of colonisation? Certainly it's something Star Trek never mentions!
A very interesting news story today (link) made me think about the future and how human colonisation might work. Assuming our species lives another 50 years we might be able to set out on a journey to distant worlds. Let's say we can make it to Gliese 581 in about 30 years and colonise it. That would make the first humans born on another planet in about 80 years. They would be teenagers in about 100 years from today.
If they do not wear "corrective" spectacles then their eyes will develop very differently from their parents'. The sun around which Gliese 581 orbits is a red dwarf and therefore emits very red light, rather than a sort of yellow that our sun emits. This would mean that the cones in their eyes will be different so that they can see the detail on their native planet.
Imagine one of these people returning to Earth. How will their vision cope? Presumably they will see things very differently (probably everything will appear green since their red/green cones will have developed differently).
An interesting side affect of colonisation? Certainly it's something Star Trek never mentions!
More maths please, we're British
How we decide the prioritisation of state spending is a complex subject and varies according to many criteria, not least the political leanings of the incumbent government (or should that be recumbent!). Education is a complicated thing to fund because there needs to be consideration given both to the current state of education, e.g. teachers, blackboards etc, and the future needs of the society.
The future needs of our society seem to be slightly off kilter compared with the future needs of China's society if this news article is anything to go by: link. It seems that they are preparing their children for mathematical greatness whereas we are preparing ours for mathematical mediocrity. Of course, if you compare China's health service with ours it will not appear as advanced, however in twenty years, when those Chinese maths experts have grown up and had a chance to change their society I suspect that China will have a better society all round than we do.
It's natural pessimism to think this way, but one can't help it sometimes when you look at the potential of a country like China and what they're doing to educate their people for the future whilst we seem to be treading water!
More maths please!!
I think this has touched me especially today as I am on a bit of a maths kick at the moment. I am reading The Music of the Primes (backwards as it happens) and loving it. Sometimes I think I am close to grasping the underlying nature of numbers and how it relates to the Universe (see mathematical symmetry and Group Theory), but then I realise that my mind isn't wired in the right way. I doubt that anyone's mind is wired in the right way at this current epoch. There are, however, tantalising glimpes available today of some of the fundamental mechanisms of our Universe and they are both beautiful and shocking at the same time.
Now... what's that Pythagoras triangle thing again...
The future needs of our society seem to be slightly off kilter compared with the future needs of China's society if this news article is anything to go by: link. It seems that they are preparing their children for mathematical greatness whereas we are preparing ours for mathematical mediocrity. Of course, if you compare China's health service with ours it will not appear as advanced, however in twenty years, when those Chinese maths experts have grown up and had a chance to change their society I suspect that China will have a better society all round than we do.
It's natural pessimism to think this way, but one can't help it sometimes when you look at the potential of a country like China and what they're doing to educate their people for the future whilst we seem to be treading water!
More maths please!!
I think this has touched me especially today as I am on a bit of a maths kick at the moment. I am reading The Music of the Primes (backwards as it happens) and loving it. Sometimes I think I am close to grasping the underlying nature of numbers and how it relates to the Universe (see mathematical symmetry and Group Theory), but then I realise that my mind isn't wired in the right way. I doubt that anyone's mind is wired in the right way at this current epoch. There are, however, tantalising glimpes available today of some of the fundamental mechanisms of our Universe and they are both beautiful and shocking at the same time.
Now... what's that Pythagoras triangle thing again...
Friday, April 20, 2007
The intelligence of a Gardner (sic)
I have believed for a long time (since I was 17 and missed out on becoming a member of Mensa by two points) that IQ tests are not a very good way of testing general intelligence. It seems obvious that IQ tests only test a number of small areas of one’s overall intelligence. For example it’s quite possible for someone to have a very high IQ (based on logic, maths and English skills) and yet have a very diminished skills in other areas (spatial, social, musical etc). I think that IQ tests are useful in only assessing the particular types of intelligence like maths or English and also that there’s little correlation between these kinds of intelligence and an overall intelligence (whatever that means).
Having studied psychology at university I probably did come across Howard Gardner’s work before, but in either event I have re-discovered his work again today (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_intelligence). He has structured his ideas of the different types of intelligence into different groups and given them names. In my opinion this theory is excellent at trying to bring out the idea that the IQ test (over 100 years old and completely out of date, but worse still regarded by the public as worthy of what it claims: to be a guide to overall intelligence) is in need of change, but I think Gardner’s theory needs more work to standardise and structure the ideas of intelligence (I have only read the Wikipedia article so I could be completely wrong about that).
In any event it’s an interesting idea and one which needs to have more widespread acceptance in society. The idea that people have different kinds of intelligence and that each doesn’t have more intrinsic worth than another (e.g. it’s widely accepted that academic, mathematical or linguistic intelligence is better) is one which I think needs to be promoted throughout society. Further I think the way our society is structured, including the way we educate and value each other will, over time, change to reflect the fact that we are different and our individual skills should be enhanced and valued rather than stifled.
Gardner’s categories of intelligence are perhaps a little arbitrary, however. His Naturalistic Intelligence roughly equates to being green-fingered!
Friday, April 13, 2007
We're havin' a party
If any of my children ever tread this blog I hope they read this post perhaps the most. An interesting story in the news caught my attention today (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/wear/6549267.stm). I remember when I was a teenager going to a couple of house parties and seeing some people out of control wrecking the host house in a very disrespectful way.
It always seemed naive of someone to invite complete strangers into their house to wreck it! The major reason to host such a party always seemd to me to be an attempt at increasing individual popularity, but almost always resulted in patronage and sympathy instead!
Something similar happened to someone very close to me and the consequences have never been forgotten (not quite as bad as the ones in the article today).
Suffice to say: do not have a party in my house! It's much more clever to go to someone else's house and let them clear up the mess!
;-}
It always seemed naive of someone to invite complete strangers into their house to wreck it! The major reason to host such a party always seemd to me to be an attempt at increasing individual popularity, but almost always resulted in patronage and sympathy instead!
Something similar happened to someone very close to me and the consequences have never been forgotten (not quite as bad as the ones in the article today).
Suffice to say: do not have a party in my house! It's much more clever to go to someone else's house and let them clear up the mess!
;-}
Thursday, April 12, 2007
I'll Pass
I passed my exam today! (70-431 MCTS Sql Server). I was shocked when I found out since I didn't really think I would. I am very chuffed. I am now a Microsoft Certified Professional and also a Microsoft Certified Technical Specialist. I want to move my career into serious database work, especially consultancy, so I think this is a very good first step into that area.
Monday, April 09, 2007
Catch Up
I'm slacking slightly on the post frequency (less than 2 per month at the moment!), so I really should pick things up a bit. It's not that I don't have much to say, it's more that I have been too busy to log in and write it out. This post is really just a bit of a catch-up.
I'm studying for my SQL Server exam this lovely long, sunny weekend. It's not nice being couped up having to digest this stuff, but it's going to be worth it!
We cut Max's hair yesterday. I had cut mine a week or so before after buying some fancy clippers and made a fairly good job of my own. Max's didn't turn out so well. It's OK for a little boy, but either his hair falls strangely, or Mum and I didn't think it through. It's difficult to do it properly as he moves and the hair irritates him, but it'll be better next time.
We also went to see Nanna, Shane and Sharon in Clumber Park. We hid some chocolate eggs in the wood and did an egg hunt with Max to find them. Afterwards we went to Harwell for a BBQ with Pops and Amie (Phil is in Romania). It was a very nice day.
Better get back to studying...
I'm studying for my SQL Server exam this lovely long, sunny weekend. It's not nice being couped up having to digest this stuff, but it's going to be worth it!
We cut Max's hair yesterday. I had cut mine a week or so before after buying some fancy clippers and made a fairly good job of my own. Max's didn't turn out so well. It's OK for a little boy, but either his hair falls strangely, or Mum and I didn't think it through. It's difficult to do it properly as he moves and the hair irritates him, but it'll be better next time.
We also went to see Nanna, Shane and Sharon in Clumber Park. We hid some chocolate eggs in the wood and did an egg hunt with Max to find them. Afterwards we went to Harwell for a BBQ with Pops and Amie (Phil is in Romania). It was a very nice day.
Better get back to studying...
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